Executive Summary

Tourism plays a central role in Timor-Leste’s economic development, offering both opportunities for growth and challenges that require strategic policy responses. The Timor-Leste Business Confidence Index (BCI) 2024–2025 provides an important evidence base to understand the outlook of tourism-related businesses. Conducted between September 2024 and August 2025, the survey gathered 31 responses (30 valid), offering insights into business performance, confidence, and expectations for the future.

1. Key Findings

   The BCI highlights the continued dominance of Dili, where 74% of businesses are based. At the same time, activity in Ermera (15%) and Ataúro (7%) demonstrates the early stages of tourism diversification beyond the capital. Encouragingly, 59% of respondents plan to expand their workforce, signaling confidence in future growth. Businesses remain small in scale, with average annual turnover at USD 68,333, and exhibit strong reliance on seasonality, with 45% of turnover generated during the peak season.

2. Concerns

   Despite cautious optimism, businesses reported persistent structural barriers:

   • Limited access to finance continues to restrict growth and investment.
   • Capacity gaps in workforce skills and technical expertise reduce competitiveness.
   • Infrastructure constraints, particularly in transport and utilities, limit expansion and quality service delivery.

   These factors, combined with dependence on high-season revenues, highlight the sector’s vulnerability to external shocks.

3. Opportunities

   The results also point to emerging opportunities. The presence of businesses in Ermera and Ataúro indicates potential for geographic diversification. The sector’s optimism in workforce expansion suggests confidence in leveraging Timor-Leste’s unique mix of natural landscapes and cultural heritage. With strategic support in financing, skills training, and infrastructure upgrades, tourism businesses can better position themselves for year-round resilience and sustainable growth.

4. Conclusion

   Overall, the Timor-Leste BCI reflects a sector that is resilient and cautiously optimistic, but constrained by systemic challenges. To unlock its full potential, Timor-Leste must strengthen enabling conditions and build long-term strategies for diversification.

   This report is part of the Pacific Tourism Data Initiative (PTDI), implemented by the Pacific Tourism Organisation (SPTO) in collaboration with the Ministry of Tourism and Environment (MTA) and the National Institute of Statistics of Timor-Leste (INETL). It contributes to regional efforts to promote evidence-based policy and planning, in line with the Pacific Sustainable Tourism Policy Framework (2021–2030) and the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent.